What to Expect in the Markets Next Week

U.S. stocks ended a turbulent week with losses, as enthusiasm from Thursday’s turnaround rally faded. For the week, the Dow finished 1.2% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 1.5% and 3%, respectively. U.S. Treasuries had a volatile week, with yields whipsawing in response to Thursday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report. The yield on the 10-year note rose above 4%, notching its highest level since 2008. Crude oil prices fell over 7% this week after surging 15% during the previous week, driven lower by concerns about a slowdown in demand as Chinese cities reimposed COVID-19 lockdowns, while a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. crude inventories surged by 9.9 million barrels last week. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the week just over $85 per barrel.

Next week, the Biden administration plans to take new steps to lower gasoline prices, and is reportedly considering releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and imposing limits on exports of energy products. The initiative comes a week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to cut oil production by up to 2 million barrels per day.

Corporate earnings season enters one of its busiest weeks starting on Monday, with more big bank and financial earnings due from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays. Other companies due to report results will include Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, IBM, Netflix, United Airlines, American Airlines, Procter & Gamble, and Tesla. The latest updates on the U.S. housing market, including September housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales will become available. Investors can also expect a key GDP release from China and a vital inflation reading from the U.K.

Events Calendar:

Monday, October 17

• Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS), and Zions Bancorp (ZION) report earnings
• New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• China GDP Growth Rate (Q3 2022)

Tuesday, October 18

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Truist Financial (TFC), State Street Corp. (STT), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Albertsons Companies (ACI), First Horizon Corp. (FHN), United Airlines (UAL), Hasbro Inc. (HAS), Signature Bank (SBNY), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP), and Hancock Whitney Corp. (HWC) report earnings
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)
• Industrial Production (Sep)
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Oct)

Wednesday, October 19

• Tesla (TSLA), Procter & Gamble (PG), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), NextEra Energy (NEE), Elevance Health (ELV), IBM (IBM), Prologis (PLD), Crown Castle (CCI), Lam Research Corp. (LRCX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), The Travelers Companies (TRV), Biogen (BIIB), M&T Bank (MTB), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Baker Hughes (BKR), Equifax (EFX), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Ally Financial (ALLY), Knight Transportation Inc. (KNX), and Alcoa Corporation (AA) report earnings
• Housing Starts (Sep)
• Building Permits (Sep)
• U.K. Inflation Rate (Sep)
• Fed Beige Book Release

Thursday, October 20

• Danaher (DHR), Philip Morris International (PM), Union Pacific (UNP), AT&T (T), Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC), Blackstone Inc. (BX), CSX Corp. (CSX), ABB Ltd. (ABB), Freeport-McMoran (FCX), Dow Inc. (DOW), Nucor Corp. (NUE), Barclays PLC (BCS), Nokia (NOK), Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO), SVB Financial Group (SIVB), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Robert Half International (RHI), Webster Financial Corporation (WBS), American Airlines (AAL), Whirlpool Corp. (WHR), and Crocs Inc. (CROX) report earnings
• Existing Home Sales (Sep)
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)

Friday, October 21

• Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP), Goldman Sachs (GS), Schlumberger (SLB), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), and Autoliv (ALV) report earnings
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Flash Estimate (Oct)

A Busy Earnings Week

Earnings season will begin one of its busiest weeks on Monday. Financial sector earnings will come from Bank of America, BNY Mellon, and Charles Schwab on Monday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and others later in the week. Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, and Netflix will report on Tuesday, followed by Tesla and Procter & Gamble on Wednesday. AT&T will report on Thursday, while Verizon and American Express will follow on Friday.

Third-quarter earnings could prove to be a mixed bag for the corporate sector at large, as a rising dollar and a general economic slowdown impact profitability. Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to average just 2.4%, which would mark the weakest quarter since an average 5.7% net loss in the third quarter of 2020. Among S&P 500 companies, 65 have reported negative earnings guidance while just 41 have issued positive guidance according to research by FactSet.

Home, Sweet Home

A number of key updates on the U.S. housing market will arrive next week. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release its monthly Housing Market Index (HMI), tracking industry sentiment among homebuilders. The following day, the U.S. Census Bureau will release September housing starts and building permits. Housing starts are expected to have fallen to 1.5 million in September, down from an unexpectedly strong reading of 1.575 million in August. 

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will issue existing home sales figures for September. Existing home sales are projected to have declined to 4.7 million last month, down from 4.8 million in August as rising mortgage rates dampen homebuying demand. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged to nearly 7% this week, its highest level in over two decades according to Freddie Mac. Rates have more than doubled since the start of 2022, when the average 30-year mortgage rate stood at 3.11%.

Watching the World’s Second-Largest Economy

On Monday, investors can expect a key growth update from the world’s second-largest economy. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have risen 3.8% over the previous quarter in the three months ended September, rebounding from a 2.6% decline in the second quarter. Compared to a year ago, Chinese GDP is projected to have grown 3.5%. The Chinese economy slowed considerably during the first half of the year, as the government imposed stringent lockdowns in major cities in an effort to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. China’s economy is projected to expand by 5.5% in 2022, slowing sharply from an 8.1% growth rate in 2021.